The Right Take

EP. 85: Why There Was No Red Wave

The polls predicted a red wave, historical trends suggested a red wave, the economy and current president should have led to a red wave. But all we got this year was a red ripple. After a three-week hiatus, Eric and Jacob dig into some of the specifics of high-profile races and break down the why. Why were Republicans not able to follow through on an easy layup and deliver a blow to Biden's agenda and legacy?

 

00:00 Intro and Thanksgiving Tales

10:04 Twitter Back!!!

13:25 American Voter Geography

19:25 Republicans' Epic Senate Fail

41:58 Recap of the Red House Ripple

42:38 No Red Wave in New England

49:42 The One Northeast State that Had a Red Wave

51:55 Red Wave Dammed Up in the Mid-Atlantic

01:03:44 The South's Mixed Bag

01:15:32 The Western Draw

01:35:30 Discussion and Debate on the Why No Red Wave Materialized

 

SHOWNOTES

Eric’s article summarizing how both parties are wrong about 2022: https://amgreatness.com/2022/11/14/the-last-election/ 

Eric’s interview on The Officer Tatum Show, with Carl Jackson, further explaining what happened in 2022: https://righttakepodcast.com/2022/11/17/erics-interview-on-the-officer-tatum-show-with-carl-jackson/ 

Eric’s interview on Carl Jackson’s podcast, expanding even more on 2022 and what to do in the future: https://righttakepodcast.com/2022/12/01/erics-interview-on-the-carl-jackson-podcast/ 

Five states, including two deep-red states, vote in favor of abortion: https://amgreatness.com/2022/11/09/five-states-vote-in-favor-of-abortion/

Washington Post article tracking the wins and losses of candidates who called out voter fraud in 2020: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/election-deniers-midterms/ 

CNN exit poll showing Zoomers supported Democrats this year by a 28-point margin: https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590190476334096386?cxt=HHwWhIDTsYT0vpEsAAAA 

The young vote is being widely credited as the main reason for Democratic victories: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/11/young-voters-us-midterms-democratic-youth 

Young voter turnout was the second-highest for a midterm in the last 30 years: https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135810302/turnout-among-young-voters-was-the-second-highest-for-a-midterm-in-past-30-years 

Joseph Cotto’s take on how demographics are the main reason for the GOP losses this year: https://twitter.com/JosephFordCotto/status/1590216329675837440?t=ssW6AVhwZQ3jyivAkd1N_g&s=19 

A solid Twitter thread on how the GOP must start employing quick and easy fear tactics, like the Democrats, if they’re to maintain any hope of future victories: https://twitter.com/Niggledom/status/1590376901289263104?s=20&t=5OrVS2Gj3OOs69pAH4tuvw 

How turnout should have favored Republicans in 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/election-day-midterms-exit-polls-00065768 

New York Post cover story declares DeSantis to be “DeFuture:” https://nypost.com/2022/11/09/ron-desantis-shows-hes-future-of-the-gop/ 

Newt Gingrich is still living in the 90s, thinks the Democrats are socialist—or at least still thinks calling them that is the best way to beat them.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3760487-newt-gingrich-gop-must-learn-to-quit-underestimating-biden/

New York Post cover story mocks Trump as “Trumpty Dumpty:” https://nypost.com/2022/11/09/heres-how-donald-trump-sabotaged-the-republican-midterms/ 

Vox chart on how “candidate quality” played a role in many outsider candidates’ defeats: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/16/23458896/republicans-senate-candidate-quality-trump

The Right Take’s Official 2022 Predictions

In the final episode before the 2022 midterm elections on November 8th, Eric recaps some of the biggest breaking stories that may impact the midterms in one week, then delivers the official predictions from The Right Take regarding key races for the Senate, the governorships, and the House.

TIMESTAMPS

00:00 - Intro
12:42 - Predictions for U.S. Senate
28:56 - Predictions for Governors’ races
41:50 - Predictions for a handful of U.S. House races
51:15 - Conclusion

SHOWNOTES

Libertarian candidate Marc Victor drops out of the Arizona Senate race and endorses Blake Masters: https://nypost.com/2022/11/01/blake-masters-gets-nod-from-libertarian-marc-victor-in-arizona-senate-race/

Pennsylvania Supreme Court sides with RNC, orders a halt to counting all undated mail-in ballots: https://twitter.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1587557532784103424

Trafalgar Group has Lee Zeldin narrowly leading in New York: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ny-gov-1031/ 

Trafalgar has a surprisingly close race for the U.S. Senate in Washington: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wa-sen-1029/ 

Trafalgar shows a narrow lead for Mark Ronchetti in the New Mexico gubernatorial election: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nm-gov-1024/

Create your own Senate prediction map here: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/

Create your own Governor prediction map here: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/

EP. 83: Could the GOP Flip New York?

This week, we focus on the governors' races. Politico predicts Democrats will sit in the majority of governors' mansions after this election. Could that happen even with momentum at Republicans' backs? We break down the most contested governors' races this election cycle to find out.

 

00:00 Intro

05:04 States Republicans are guaranteed to lose

13:29 Oregon: Tina Kotek vs Christina Drazan vs Betsy Johnson

20:30 Wisconsin: Tony Evers vs Tim Michels

26:56 Nevada: Steve Sisolak vs Joe Lombardo

31:16 Kansas: Laura Kelly vs Derek Schmidt

34:07 Arizona: Katie Hobbs vs Kari Lake

45:44 Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vs Doug Mastriano

01:01:05 New York: Kathy Hochul vs Lee Zeldin

01:11:03 Honorable Mentions: Minnesota,

01:22:24 Texas,

01:27:06 Georgia,

01:31:25 New Mexico

 

SHOWNOTES

Oregon Governor Kate Brown’s low approval ratings: https://morningconsult.com/2022/10/11/whitmers-approval-ticks-up-in-michigan-ahead-of-midterms/ 

Oregon’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tina Kotek plagued by “bullying” scandal: https://apnews.com/article/health-portland-oregon-government-and-politics-brian-clem-a3a1d1e7c64cd27dca17ae534b1d5ea1 

Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers one of only two governors running for re-election this year who has a negative approval rating: https://morningconsult.com/2022/07/19/democratic-governors-are-resisting-bidens-decline/ 

More on Evers’ approval ratings, compared to other governors: https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/ 

Katie Hobbs demanded that Kari Lake be kicked out of a townhall event before she would take the stage: https://thepostmillennial.com/kari-lake-kicked-out-of-her-own-town-hall-audience-so-katie-hobbs-could-speak-comfortably 

Pennsylvania Secretary of State, now gubernatorial nominee, Josh Shapiro vowed that he would make sure Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020: https://twitter.com/joshshapiropa/status/1322640510637477889 

Republican Senate primary candidate Kathy Barnette encourages her supporters to vote for Dr. Oz: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/10/20/kathy-barnette-urges-her-supporters-to-vote-for-mehmet-oz/ 

The Detroit News endorses Tudor Dixon due to Gretchen Whitmer’s “instincts towards authoritarianism:” https://archive.ph/Vo0GI 

Real Clear Politics shifts New York gubernatorial race to “tossup:” ​​https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-york-governor-race-between-race-gov-hochul-rep-zeldin-tightens-toss-up 

Ep. 82: Speaker Newt McCarthy?

This week, we focus on the House elections. Republicans are favored by all the pundits to flip the lower chamber of Congress. But will this be a red wave or a red ripple? We discuss Kevin McCarthy's Commitment to America, we look at a Hail Mary Biden is throwing to lower gas prices, and we examine 12 House swing districts that could go either way.

 

00:00 Intro

05:18 Kevin McCarthy’s Gingrich-esque “Commitment to America”

22:52 Biden's Hail Mary to Save the House for Democrats

36:23 Eric covers five races Republicans could flip

37:02 TX-34, Gonzalez vs Flores

45:18 OH-09, Kaptur vs Majewski

54:55 CA-27, Smith vs Garcia

01:01:55 CA-45, Chen vs Steel

01:03:41 CA-22, Salas vs Valadeo

01:14:22 Jacob covers five races Republicans could flip and two tight ones they need to hold

01:15:07 OR-06, Salinas vs Erickson

01:17:07 OR-05, McLeaod-Skinner vs Chavez-DeRemer

01:19:41 NJ-07, Malinowski vs Kean

01:21:52 RI-02, Magaziner vs Fung

01:24:32 MI-07, Slotkin vs Barrett

01:27:42 NE-02, Vargas vs Bacon

01:28:36 CA-41, Rollins vs Calvert

 

SHOWNOTES

Kevin McCarthy’s Gingrich-esque “Commitment to America:” https://www.republicanleader.gov/commitment/ 

Kevin McCarthy does not support impeaching Joe Biden: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/19/mccarthy-impeachment-biden-gop-midterms/Restaurant

Vox sounding increasingly bearish on Dems’ chances: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/19/23408788/midterms-2022-polls-republicans-forecast

Biden releasing another 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to reduce gas prices: http://www.whec.com/business/facing-tough-midterms-biden-releasing-oil-from-us-reserve/

Intelligencer article including an anecdote about how the GOP is throwing money away on Mayra’ Flores’ re-election bid: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/how-the-border-went-maga/ar-AA133oxh  

Trump-backed House candidate in Ohio’s 9th J.R. Majewski allegedly exaggerated his service in Afghanistan: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-afghanistan-ohio-campaigns-e75d2566635f11f49332bd1c46711999 

FiveThirtyEight’s handy guide on how congressional districts changed after the 2022 redistricting process: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/ 

How California may once again determine a House majority: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/10/california-congressional-races-nancy-pelosi

Jacob’s blog article on midterms 100 years ago that flipped 77 House seats

https://historyhowithappened.com/throwback-to-1922-midterm-elections/

 

 

 

 

 

Senator McMuffin? With Guest Josh Heckathorn

This week, we round up the Senate swing state races. Republicans just have to pick up ONE Senate seat to flip the upper chamber. It currently looks promising. But there's one reliably red state that could mess it all up.
 

 

00:00 Intro

04:20 Senate Races Roundup

20:00 Interview: The Senate Seat That Could Cost Republicans a Senate Majority with Josh Heckathorn

 

SHOWNOTES

Nevada Could Be Senate Republicans’ Ace in the Hole

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nevada-could-be-senate-republicans-ace-in-the-hole/ 

The political significance of the Mormon vote in Nevada: https://www.cnn.com/2012/07/03/politics/nevada-mormons 

What are the true political beliefs of most Mormons? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mormon-beliefs-what-planets-russell-m-nelson-afterlife-joseph-smith-book-of-mormon-religion-faith-explained-a8164901.html 

Suggestions to Republican Officials to Fix Higher Education before We’re all Dead

This week, we recap the last of the primary results. We analyze Governor Desantis's relocating migrants to Martha's Vinyard. We explore what we can learn from Germany and how anti-native discrimination occurs when immigrants gain political control.

 

For our main topic, we explore the question 'What is to be done about leftist indoctrination centers in America'? A professor recently authored a long-form essay, offering several solutions to fix America's university system to restore free speech and open inquiry. We analyze his solutions and offer our own commentary on how to get Republicans interested in doing what's necessary to fix higher education.

 

00:00 Intro

05:05 Primaries Recap

09:04 Dumping trespassers on wealthy libtards' lawns

22:48 Germans need not apply...in Germany

29:08 Main Topic: A professor's column on fixing higher ed

42:20 Shampling's suggested steps to break the academic cabal

 

SHOWNOTES

Green Green mayor of German city plans to ban native Germans from applying for one-third of available jobs: https://summit.news/2022/09/23/germany-greens-plan-to-ban-native-germans-from-a-third-of-jobs-to-promote-diversity/ 

CNN op-ed pointing out how Brazilian immigrants replaced American workers in Martha’s Vinyard and throughout Massachusetts: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/18/opinions/brazilians-marthas-vineyard-immigration-gerson 

A suggestion to Republican officials to fix higher education before we’re all dead:  https://wesleyyang.substack.com/p/how-to-fix-what-is-broken-in-academia?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=59265&post_id=76019934&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email 

A strong state is necessary to secure Free Speech: https://twitter.com/TShampling/status/1524461300306223104

”My Son Hunter” Movie Review

This week, we devote the entire episode to a review of Breitbart's “My Son Hunter.”

 

00:00 Intro

04:43 The Making of “My Son Hunter”

09:00 Plot Recap (Spoilers)

30:18 Praise and Criticism (Spoilers)

53:10 Recap and Conclusion (Spoilers)

 

Watch: https://mysonhunter.com/

”My Son Hunter” Movie Review

This week, we devote the entire episode to a review of Breitbart's “My Son Hunter.”

 

00:00 Intro

04:43 The Making of “My Son Hunter”

09:00 Plot Recap (Spoilers)

30:18 Praise and Criticism (Spoilers)

53:10 Recap and Conclusion (Spoilers)

 

Watch: https://mysonhunter.com/

The Wonderful Doctor of Oz, with guest Kyle Winner

In this episode, Jacob and Eric are joined in-studio by Kyle Winner, former host of The Troy Show, to talk about Rust Belt politics, from the races for Governor and Senator in Ohio, to the hotly-contested Senate race in Pennsylvania with Dr. Oz.

TIMESTAMPS

00:00 Intro and Kyle's experience in D.C.
18:14 The Ohio governor's race
40:21 The Ohio Senate race: J.D. Vance vs. Tim Ryan
1:01:21 Main Topic: The Pennsylvania Senate race - Dr. Oz vs. John Fetterman

SHOWNOTES

Democratic Senate nominee in Ohio Tim Ryan admits the Democratic brand is “not good:” https://www.foxnews.com/media/ohio-rep-tim-ryan-admits-democratic-brand-harmful-political-image

Ned Ryun’s article in American Greatness defending President Trump’s endorsement of Dr. Oz: https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/12/trump-had-every-reason-to-endorse-dr-oz/ 

NBC Senior Politics Reporter Jonathan Allen concedes that Dr. Oz is forcing the mainstream media to address the issue of John Fetterman’s health: https://www.mediaite.com/tv/nbc-senior-politics-reporter-credits-dr-oz-with-making-the-media-report-on-fettermans-health/ 

Pro-Oz group puts out a devastating ad against Fetterman that could hurt his chances with black voters: https://www.newsweek.com/pro-oz-ad-could-cost-fetterman-election-democrats-fear-1740764

Fetterman caves to pressure and agrees to debate Dr. Oz: https://www.newsweek.com/john-fetterman-a

Is Mitch McConnell Sabotaging His Own Party?

This week, we open with how ranked-choice voting sunk Sarah Palin. Also, where Hillary saw deplorables, Biden sees a clear and present danger. For our main topic, we discuss how sabotage may sink Republicans' chances of winning back the Senate.

 

00:00 Intro

03:17 What in the world happened in Alaska?!?

18:00 Biden declares war on Americans

37:00 Main Topic: Is Mitch willing to sink the ship to remain the captain?

 

SHOWNOTES

McConnell's Senate Leadership Fund PAC cancels over $10 million in ad buys in Alaska and Arizona: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/shifting-strategy-senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-ad-buys-in-arizona-alaska-00053965

Blake Masters, the Trump-backed nominee in Arizona, previously pledged to oppose McConnell's leadership: https://rollcall.com/2022/07/07/trump-backed-masters-wants-to-join-senate-america-first-caucus/

Masters now changing his tune in response to McConnell cutting the funding: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/masters-changes-tune-mcconnell-hopeful-gop-leader-will-offer-financial-support-arizona

McConnell still willing to show support for some pro-Trump candidates, including Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mcconnell-host-gop-senate-candidates-walker-oz-candidate/story?id=88890998

McConnell publicly declares that the GOP may not retake the Senate, due in part to "candidate quality:" https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/mcconnell-gop-may-not-retake-senate-2022

President Trump issues a statement formally calling for McConnell to be replaced as Senate Republican leader: https://thehill.com/homenews/3614769-trump-calls-for-mcconnell-to-be-ousted-as-gop-leader-immediately/

One possible replacement? Florida Senator Rick Scott openly clashing with McConnell ahead of the midterms: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3624417-mcconnell-scott-feud-bursts-out-into-the-open/